Once again, coup rumors are all over town.  This whole week was ringing with coups, countercoups, loyalty checks, and all sorts of psywar pronouncements making people antsy.

I guess it is that time of the year when the 99 degree Fahrenheit heat is getting into people's heads, making them see mirages and hear spooks, lowering their levels of patience.  But there is no question, the economy continues to be the number one problem of this country.

There is still a lot of uncertainty in the air starting with the VAT stopped dead on its tracks and the United States' perception of continued widespread corruption.  The VAT is a necessary evil and yet, a lot of companies are already beginning to complain.

Last year, a lot of firms with regional offices in the country—such as J&J, Colgate, and New Zealand Milk—have transferred to Bangkok while some are looking at Kuala Lumpur. 

Thailand's Board of Investments even set up special incentive packages for the automotive, agriculture, fashion and ICT sectors.  Its government also strengthened networks linking Thailand to surrounding countries so manufacturers could source low-cost raw materials and labor to make products more competitive with Chinese-made goods.

It's the whole chicken-and-egg investment situation again and there is no question these coup rumors are definitely not going to help the economy.  They are just going to make things worse.  Knowing this, adventurers are emboldened with all the kindling wood and cannon fodder around.  Adventurers, however, should always keep in mind that resolutions, no matter how peaceful, eat their own children.

Gen. Fortunato Abat is an old soldier from the old school.  I met him many years ago when he was still the country's ambassador to China.  He struck me then as an idealist.  Idealism is good, but a lot of practicality must come into play in this country.

I, like many others, don't think another EDSA is a solution to the many ills that plague this country today.  As I have said repeatedly, it is beyond leadership change.  Changing the leader at this point isn't going to take the many problems of this country away.

We need institutional changes in the system.  The Americans are helping in the military reform program.  But at the end of the day, everyone who has a stake in this country just has to do their part.  Failing this, we will all be overtaken by events that will be beyond our control.

In the Pulse Asia survey conducted from March 3 to 16, you can see what it is all about.  Most Filipinos are not happy with their quality of life as well as the nation's situation, with 45 percent saying that they expect life to be even worse next year. 

A bigger number, 59 percent, have expressed a pessimistic outlook about the country's future.  Six out of ten Filipinos believe that they are worse off now as compared to last year. 

The weight of poverty is what continues to drag this country down when you consider that it has a low tax base, corporations are moving out consequently—less jobs.  The end result is that we may just have that social explosion analysts have been predicting for years now.

As I see it, that is where we are headed unless we put our heads together and set things right.  It is certainly not going to take an Abat and a cabal of retired generals to push us down the cliff.  This time, we won't be having an EDSA of the same mold with a relatively peaceful transition of power.

As many analysts believe, the next is going to be very ugly, if ever.  The law of averages has got to catch up with us at some point.  This one will not just happen overnight.  Perhaps, it will be a confluence of events like in 1985 when there was a reformist plot to kill the First Family for a military junta to takeover.

But a peaceful EDSA is definitely not in the cards.  In fact, some soothsayers have already predicted this.  If we don't band together, we might just wake up one day to find a totally different system in place.

Nevertheless, it will happen if we don't address the root cause for the past two decades: pervasive poverty.  And as the population continues to grow unabated, poverty will not leave because more poverty begets the inevitable corruption.  It is simply a vicious cycle.

Of course the old soldier FVR, who wears glasses without any lenses, is too smart to have any part of any coup plans.  He rightly distanced himself even if everybody knows Gen. Fortunato Abat is closely associated with him.  Be that as it may, this is an indication that things are still not well in the country today.

Perhaps, FVR's role is to try and push for constitutional change like he did in the last two years of his term.  He could lead the proponents of constitutional change in the right direction together with Speaker Joe de Venecia.  Change in the present system is perhaps the alternative.

The recent Supreme Court decision nullifying the tax and duty exemptions in the special economic zones of Clark, John Hay, and Poro Point, has created another international ripple among the business community.  Developers, sub-locators, concessionaires, buyers, and residents in these zones are all adversely affected and left twisting in the wind.  Another black eye for the country in the eyes of the international community similar to the reversals that befell the PEA-Amari deal and the Manila Hotel sale in the 90s.

On many occasions, people ask, "May pagasa pa ba?" (Is there hope?)  I always tell them that over the past 15 years that I've been dealing with foreigners, expats, and diplomats, nine out of ten fall in love with the country and the people so much they signify their intention to come back and five out of ten actually relocate here.  Like many diplomats, the US Ambassador said the other night he intends to come back often like his predecessors because he and his wife enjoyed the country so much.

So what does that tell us?  Essentially, from the foreign perspective, they see this land as a paradise that can be transformed.  It's really a question of Filipinos looking at it positively and doing their part in transforming it. 

Perhaps, we can start by singing the Philippine national anthem, Bayan Ko, or Ako'y Pilipino, and taking it to heart and mean every word we sing.  Until the day we all sing the same tune and in unison—there will always be old soldiers who refuse to die, they will just continue to coup away.

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